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Trump’s effort to expand offshore oil and gas exploration has stalled, and may be dead in the water. The newest obstacle is an April ruling in Alaska’s U.S. District Court that blocked Trump’s order to lift a ban on energy leasing in Arctic waters.

特朗普扩大海上石油和天然气勘探的努力已经停?#20572;?#21487;能会在“水中搁浅”。最新的障碍是阿拉斯加地区法院今年4月做出的一项裁决,该裁决阻止了特朗普解除北极水域能源租赁禁令的命令。

Trump’s 2018 order opening nearly all U.S. coastal waters to offshore drilling is now in limbo, and may be significantly revised. If Trump is voted out in 2020, the plan won’t survive. And even if he is reelected, there are logical arguments for shelving it.

特朗普2018年的命令几乎开放了美国所有沿海水域,允许近海钻探,但目前这一命令处于悬而未决的状态,可能会被重大修改。如果特朗普在2020年被淘汰出局,该计划将无法继续存在。即使他再次当选,也有理由将其搁置。



Why would Trump even consider such an unpopular move? One driver may be his determination to erase the environmental legacy of his predecessor, President Obama.

为?#35009;?#29305;朗普会考虑这样一个不受欢迎的举动?一个推动因素可能是他决心消除前任奥巴马总统留下的环境遗产。

In December 2016, invoking a provision of the 1953 Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, Obama banned offshore drilling in large areas of the Arctic and along the Atlantic coast. Trump sought to kill the ban using an executive order – an approach that reflects his broader effort to extend the limits of presidential power. But Alaska’s District Court ruled that only Congress can reverse Obama’s action.

2016年12月,奥巴马援引1953年《外大陆架土地法》的一项条款,禁止在北极大片地区和大西洋沿岸进行海上钻探。特朗普试图通过行政命令废除这一禁令,这种做法反映了他扩大总统权力范围的更广泛努力。但阿拉斯加地方法院裁定,只有国会才能推翻奥巴马的举措。

Nonetheless, the Interior Department is still processing applications to conduct surveys for oil and gas deposits off the Atlantic coast. And the White House is moving to undo new drilling safety requirements adopted in response to the Deepwater Horizon disaster.
How much would the oil industry gain from more access to federal waters? Trade groups welcomed Trump’s order, but their statements aren’t especially convincing – mainly because estimates of potential offshore reserves in the contested areas pale compared to the central and western Gulf of Mexico, where energy companies have been drilling since the late 1930s.

尽管如此,内政部仍在处理?#28304;?#35199;洋沿岸石油和天然气矿床进行勘探的申请。白宫正在采取行动,?#24223;?#38024;对“深水地平线”灾难采取的新的钻井安全要求。
如果能更多地进入联邦水域,石油工?#21040;?#20174;中获得多少好处?贸易组织对特朗普的命令表示欢迎,但他们的声明并不特别令人信服——主要是因为与墨西哥湾中部和西部相比,对有争议地区潜在海上储量的估计并不?#27490;邸?#33258;上世纪30年代末以来,能源公司一直在墨西哥湾进行钻探。

The action is on land
More to the point, an onshore oil and gas boom is underway, centered in several major provinces of the lower 48 states. These areas offer far more potential with much lower drilling costs than the offshore.
Some of the world’s largest private oil companies are focused on the Permian Basin, an 86,000 square mile region in West Texas and southeast New Mexico. One measure of the stakes is a battle between oil giants Chevron and Occidental over a roughly US$50 billion merger with Anadarko, a company that holds significant value and high standing in the basin.

陆上行动
更重要的是,陆上石油和天然气的?#27604;?#27491;在进行中,主要集中在美国48个州的几个主要省份。与近海相比,这些地区的钻井成本要低得多,潜力也大得多。
世界上一些最大的私营石油公司?#25216;?#20013;在二叠纪盆地,这是一个面积8.6万平方英里的地区,位于德克萨斯州西部和新墨西哥州东南部。
衡量股权的一个标准是石油巨头雪佛龙和西方石油公?#23616;?#38388;围绕与阿纳达科公司约500亿美元的合并展开的斗争。阿纳达科是一家在该盆地拥有巨大价值和极高地位的公?#23613;?br />
According to published figures and confidential sources I have spoken with, the Permian Basin holds approximately 70-100 billion barrels of oil and over 300 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In a 2018 study the U.S. Geological Survey more than doubled earlier estimates for the Delaware Basin, part of the greater Permian Basin province.

根据我与之交?#33145;?#30340;公开数据和机密资料,二叠纪盆地拥有约700亿至1000亿桶石油和300多万亿立方英尺天然气。在2018年的一项研究中,美国地?#23454;?#26597;局对特拉华盆地的估计比之前提高了一倍多。特拉华盆地是二叠纪盆地的一部分。

These numbers reveal the enormous scale of new resources that have emerged over the past decade from combined use of advanced horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. In contrast, estimated reserves in the offshore areas Trump wants to open are far smaller: Only 5 billion barrels of oil and 38 trillion cubic feet of natural gas for the entire Atlantic seaboard, with perhaps another 13 billion barrels and 50 trillion cubic feet combined for the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and offshore California.

这些数字表明,在过去十年中,先进水平钻井和多级水力压裂?#38469;?#30340;结?#40092;?#29992;,已经产生了巨大规模的新资源。相比之下,特朗普希望开放的近海地区的估计储量要小得多:整个大西洋海岸只有50亿桶石油和38万亿立方英尺天然气,墨西哥湾东部和加利福尼亚离岸地区可能还有130亿桶石油和50万亿立方英尺天然气。

These volumes aren’t trivial, but they are likely to be spread over millions of acres. And oil prices, which recently have ranged from about $55-75 per barrel, would need to be much higher to generate any solid interest in such areas.

这些数量虽然不算小,但很可能分布在数百万英亩的地区上。最近油价在每桶55-75美元之间波动,要想在这类领域产生任何实质性的利益,就需要更高的油价。

Perhaps the biggest benefit for the oil industry from expanding offshore leasing would be defeating environmentalists on a signature issue. That could make it easier to open other areas that currently are off-limits to drilling.

或许扩大海上租赁对石油行业最大的好处,将是在一个标志性问题上击败环保主义者。这可能使目前其他禁止钻探的地区更容易开采。



I believe that any president who wants the United States to play a major role in the world’s energy future should be beating the drum for other sources. Fossil fuels will not disappear soon, but low-carbon and carbon-free sources will become ever more essential. And strategies like maximizing offshore oil production will be ever more difficult politically, economically or scientifically.

我认为,任何一位希望美国在世界能源未来发挥重要作用的总统?#21152;?#35813;大力宣传其他能源。化石燃料不会很快消失,但低碳和无碳能源将变得越来越重要。而像最大化近海石油产量这样的策略将在政治、经济或科学上变得更加困?#36873;?br />